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        The Philippines and China have had a long history of mutual friendship, spanning decades and centuries of intercultural exchange and trade.  Thirty-seven years ago, the two countries formally established diplomatic relations.  In general, Sino-Phil relations have achieved a smooth development in all areas of bilateral cooperation in trade, culture, tourism, and military exchanges.  Despite several disputes between the two countries over the sovereignty of some islands and shoals in the Spratly Islands, rounds of consultations have resulted to an agreement between the two countries to strive for a solution through bilateral friendly talks.  However, relations between the two countries turned sour due to the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff.
       

The Scarborough Shoal Dispute:  Live and Let Live

        Scarborough Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc in the Province of Zambales is an integral part of the Philippine territory.  It is located 124 nautical miles west of Zambales and is within the 200 nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the Philippine Continental Shelf.  The dispute started with a report from the Philippine Navy inspection team that large amounts of illegally collected corals, giant clams and live sharks were found in the compartments of three Chinese fishing vessels, in serious violation the Philippines’ sovereignty, of the Philippine Fisheries Code, and of marine jurisdiction and environment laws.  The Philippines has the right to protect its maritime territories, but China aggressively asserted ownership over Scarborough Shoal based on historical claims, without substantiating it with a clear historical title.  Under public international law, historical claims are not historical titles.  China had also claimed that Scarborough Shoal has been a traditional fishing area of Chinese fishermen, however, under international law, fishing rights is not a mode of acquiring sovereignty or even sovereignty rights over an area, and neither can it be considered as a sovereign act of China.

        There are various speculations as to why China is aggressively pursuing ownership over shoals in the West Philippine Sea.  China, as of the present, is hailed as the greatest economic power of Asia.  China may perhaps be after economic expansionism in the Asia-Pacific.  The West Philippine Sea is an economically pivotal maritime area.  It provides passage to much of the inter-region trade, acting as a conduit linking East and West trade.  It is also an area rich in hydrocarbon and fishery resources that are very essential to economies.  From a strategic and military context, the West Philippine Sea is of immense importance for Asian countries and external powers. 
       

        Other probing questions are whether China is trying to establish hegemony in the region? Is China trying to make the sea its naval fleet sanctuary, since it had modernized its navy?  Is China’s aggression and assertion part of a power play with the United States, its major competitor for superpower status?
 

        Some American strategic thinkers argue that Chinese policy pursues two long-term objectives:  to displace the United States as the preeminent power in the western Pacific and consolidating Asia into an exclusionary bloc that defer to Chinese economic and foreign policy interests.  Even though China's absolute military capabilities are not  equal to those of the United States, China is developing means to thwart U.S. advantage. China's Asian neighbors are dependent heavily on Chinese trade and they might adjust their policies according to Chinese preferences. Eventually, this could lead to the creation of a China-centered Asian bloc dominating the Asia-Pacific.

    
        China's greatest strategic fear is that an outside power or powers will establish military deployments around China that will be capable of encroaching on China's territory or meddling in its domestic institutions. The United States' fear is being pushed out of the Asia-Pacific by an exclusionary bloc, thereby thwarting its strategy of military expansionism.

 

        The past and recent events over the Scarborough Shoal dispute had placed the Philippines at the center of the superpower play.  The Philippines had cried:  “We are being bullied!”  And China had warned:  “Leave the United States out of this!”  The Philippines has been caught in the middle.  Scarborough Shoal might perhaps be just a point of excuse.  The meaning and intention of U.S. President Obama’s intent to advance security, prosperity, and human dignity in the Asia Pacific region, plus the 28th Balikatan exercise (April 16-27, 2012) involving not just the U.S. and Philippine armed forces but also the armed forces of seven other Asian countries, including Australia, were not lost on China.  Thus, perhaps using the Scarborough Shoal as an excuse, it unleashed its own style of bullying as clever diversionary tactic.
 

        In attempts to resolve the Scarborough Shoal dispute, China asserts for bilateral talks with the Philippines.  The Philippines, a far weaker country than China in all aspects, sought the help of the United Nations and the U.S.  Now that Taiwan had entered the picture, the dispute needs to be settled by multilateral as well as bilateral talks between the claimants.  Perhaps the reason why China insists on bilateral talks is because it does not want the issue to be

        internationalized.  Why is that so?  Perhaps it is because China is aware that its diplomatic standing in the international community may not be solid and far-reaching.  In short, it is not famous among its neighbors and far-away neighbors globally.  This may pose as a disadvantage for China and an advantage for the U.S.
 

      If both China and the United States will continue with their power play, and continue ‘bullying’ the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal, they might both lose ground.  The United States, with its down-spiraling economy and its failure to ‘hold’ the Middle East countries, and with China continuing to threaten smaller nations with its economic sanctions on regional trade, other countries would remain neutral and would focus on gearing up on their own economic and military strategies.  It would be a big loss for China economically speaking. It would be a loss for the United States, militarily speaking.  Some Asian countries have been purchasing submarines and nuclear weaponry.  The Philippines has allotted billions of pesos for the modernization of its armed forces.  The Philippines is ready to fight for its sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal.  Continuing tensions and disputes in the West Philippine may lead to a world war. Given this possibility, it is imperative that acts of hostility be prevented, and international code of conduct be observed within the premise of “Live and Let Live”.

Copyright 2012 iPOWER. Friendly reminder from the powerpuff group- Always use your power wisely. 

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